"It is possible to die from eating. But I think to be professional means you don't die." (Takeru Kobayashi)

Tuesday, July 03, 2007


Better late than never, but I wanted to get my predictions in for this year's Nathan's contest. I feel like I should be talking about Nathan's more on this blog, but I haven't. It's not that I'm not excited about it. I totally am. Tomorrow we're gathering at Beau's house where we'll grill some dogs (Nathan's of course) and watch the contest. I've vowed to eat one dog for every 10 dogs Joey eats. Yeah, I could try to eat TWO for every 10, but I don't feel like it.

This year's contest is definitely the most talked about Nathan's event in history thanks to a combination of Joey's obliteration of the record and Koby's "injury." I must have had about a dozen friends send me links to Kobayashi injury articles over the last week or so. It's amazing how ingrained in American culture this event has become.

Anyhow, here's my predictions. They're based on several factors and several random guesses. For returning eaters, I took a look at how well each eater has performed in their qualifiers from years past as compared to the main event. Some perform better on July 4th while others seem to fade a bit under the pressure of the day. Peak 2007 qualifying totals are listed in parenthesis.

60.0 Joey Chestnut (59.5)
49.0 Takeru Kobayashi (NA)
48.5 Pat Bertoletti (46)
42.5 Tim Janus (41.5)
38.5 Sonya Thomas (36)
36.0 Chip Simpson (39.5)
32.5 Rich Lefevre (34)
31.5 Bob Shoudt (32)
30.0 Hall Hunt (28.75)
29.5 Arturo Rios (27.5)
26.5 Tim Brown (25)
26.0 Erik Denmark (26)
26.0 Juliet Lee (26)
25.0 Allen Goldstein (26)
24.0 Pat Philbin (27)
22.5 Crazy Legs Conti (24)
22.0 Dale Boone (21)
15.5 P. Theyagarjan (NA)

After reviewing my predictions, I realize most of them are pretty safe guesses. No major dissappointments or breakout performances predicted, unless you count the top two. If Koby performs, I don't think he'll be at 100 percent which not only means Joey will cruise to a victory, but Pat Bertoletti will have a chance to topple the champ as well. Thirteen hours and 28 minutes until game time!


Blogger Carey said...

I was really pulling for Pat to get to 50 this year, close though. I guess it is better that he takes the high road and doesn't cheat to make himself seem greater, like some of the other eaters, who do it often, and somehow everyone forgets about it quickly.
So, UEPa, maybe holding off on the trip to Canada is best, get crackin on getting your passports in order because it will happen.

8:10 AM

Anonymous Anonymous said...

yeah. passport needed.

pretty good predictions Dave.

9:19 AM


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